How Everyone's Always Winning

(Even When They're Clearly Not)

You know what's fascinating about Americans? We're all living in completely different realities, and somehow we're all absolutely convinced we're the smart ones. It's like watching a bunch of people argue about the weather while standing in different states. Except instead of weather, it's whether the country is thriving or collapsing, and instead of different states, it's different information bubbles that might as well be different planets.

I recently stumbled across a Facebook post that perfectly encapsulates this beautiful disaster we call political discourse. Some person was basically telling Canadians, "Hey, your little tourist boycott doesn't hurt us because America gets tons of visitors and most Americans have never been to Canada anyway, so there." Classic American exceptionalism with a side of dismissive shrugging. They also threw in some confident predictions about JD Vance being our next president because, apparently, Americans will never elect another "leftist" again.

The problem? Almost everything in that post was factually wrong. But here's the really depressing part: it doesn't matter. Because half the country will read that post and nod along thinking "Finally, someone who gets it," while the other half will roll their eyes and share their own equally fact-free hot takes about how Trump is definitely going to prison any day now.

Let's start with the tourism thing, because it's actually a perfect example of how we've all decided that feelings are more important than numbers. Our Facebook poster was confident that Canadian tourists avoiding America wasn't hurting us economically. Turns out, that's about as accurate as saying the Titanic had a minor leak.

International tourism to the United States has absolutely cratered in 2025. We're talking about a 12-14% drop in international arrivals in March 2025 alone compared to the previous year. Canadian land trips plummeted 32% year-over-year. The UK, one of our most important tourism markets, saw arrivals drop nearly 15%. Germany was down over 28%. Countries like Spain, Colombia, Ireland, Ecuador, and the Dominican Republic all saw double-digit drops ranging from 24% to 33%.

According to the World Travel & Tourism Council, the United States is the only country among 184 economies analyzed that's forecast to see international visitor spending decline in 2025. Let that sink in. Out of 184 countries, we're the only one getting worse at attracting international tourists. We're like that restaurant that's somehow losing customers while every other restaurant on the block is packed.

We're looking at somewhere between $12.5 billion and $21 billion in lost spending from international visitors. Tourism Economics projects the U.S. could lose $9 billion in spending this year alone, while other estimates go as high as $21 billion. For context, the entire tourism industry contributed $2.6 trillion to the economy in 2024 and supported over 20 million jobs.

But sure, those Canadian tourists don't matter.

Now let's talk about Trump's approval ratings, because this is where the delusion really gets entertaining. Our Facebook poster seemed pretty confident that Trump's agenda has widespread support. The actual numbers tell a different story, and by "different story" I mean "the complete opposite story."

Trump's approval rating hit 37% in July 2025 according to Gallup, which is the lowest of his second term and just barely higher than his all-time worst of 34% at the end of his first presidency. Among independents, you know, those swing voters who actually decide elections, his approval dropped to 29%. That's down 17 points since January and matches his lowest rating with independents from either term.

To put that in perspective, Trump's approval with independents is now lower than Joe Biden's worst point (27%) and lower than Trump's own approval rating after January 6th (30%). When you're polling worse with swing voters than you did after an attempted coup, that's... not great.

The economic numbers are particularly brutal. Across various polls, Trump's approval on economic issues ranges from 37% to 47%, with disapproval consistently higher. On inflation specifically, he's only managing 31% to 44% approval across different surveys. Remember, this is the guy who campaigned on "I won on the border and I won on groceries." Apparently, groceries are still expensive, and people noticed.

The job market data tells an even grimmer story of economic reality crashing into political fantasy. The U.S. added a pathetic 73,000 jobs in July 2025, well below the already-modest expectation of 100,000, while unemployment ticked up to 4.2%.

But here's where it gets really ugly: the previous two months were revised down by a combined 258,000 jobs, meaning the three-month average job growth dropped to just 35,000 per month, which is the worst it's been since the pandemic. Long-term unemployment jumped to nearly 25% of all unemployed Americans, up from 21.6% a year ago, while the labor force participation rate fell to 62.2%, the lowest since November 2022 U.S.

And what was Trump's response to this economic reality check? He fired BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer the same day, accusing her of "faking" the numbers for "political purposes" and demanding "accurate Jobs Numbers," framing it as if the messenger was the problem, not the message. McEntarfer, who had been confirmed by an 86-8 bipartisan Senate vote just over a year earlier with support from both JD Vance and Marco Rubio, became the latest casualty of an administration that apparently believes economic data should reflect political wishes rather than economic reality. Because nothing says "the economy is booming" quite like firing the person whose job it is to count the jobs that aren't being created.

Then there's the whole JD Vance succession thing. Our Facebook poster was absolutely certain that Vance would be the next president, as if Trump had issued some kind of royal decree. The reality is more like watching someone play political 3D chess while blindfolded and possibly drunk.

Trump has called Vance "most likely" the heir apparent to the MAGA movement and said he would be "probably favored" for the 2028 nomination. But in practically the same breath, he's been elevating Marco Rubio, mentioning him alongside Vance as a potential successor and suggesting they could run together. It's like watching someone try to hedge their bets in real time.

Early polling shows Vance with 43% support among Republicans for 2028, while Rubio polls at just 4%. Sources close to both camps say they don't see a scenario where Vance and Rubio run against each other, which suggests the whole thing might end up being a joint ticket anyway. It's political theater where even the actors aren't sure what play they're performing.

Of course, what makes this succession soap opera particularly absurd is that neither of these supposed political titans has actually accomplished much of anything in their current roles. Vance's big 2025 achievements amount to co-sponsoring the Laken Riley Act, cheerleading for tariffs, and giving speeches in foreign countries, or basically the political equivalent of a participation trophy.

Meanwhile, Rubio has been busy restructuring the State Department (firing people), freezing foreign aid programs, and lobbying Europeans about tech regulations. So we've got one guy whose main accomplishment is attending ribbon cuttings and another whose signature policy win is making it easier for corporations to do whatever they want while career officials who try to do their jobs get shown the door. These are the political heavyweights supposedly destined to carry the MAGA torch? It's like watching two understudies argue over who gets to play Hamlet while the theater burns down around them.

But perhaps the most telling example of how broken our system is comes from something most people haven't even heard about: the Department of Justice antitrust situation. Remember Gail Slater? She was supposed to be one of the competent people in the Trump administration, confirmed by the Senate with bipartisan support to head up antitrust enforcement.

In July 2025, two of her top deputies, Roger Alford and Bill Rinner, were fired for alleged "insubordination." What was their crime? Trying to actually enforce antitrust law. The firings came amid controversy over how DOJ reached a settlement in the Hewlett Packard Enterprise-Juniper Networks merger, with Slater pushing back against pressure from Attorney General Pam Bondi's chief of staff to wave the deal through.

Here's where it gets really swampy: HPE hired lobbyists with ties to the Trump White House to push for the deal. The same day as the firings, DOJ dropped another antitrust case involving American Express Global Business Travel, whose parent company had hired Ballard Partners,- Pam Bondi's former lobbying firm, to lobby on antitrust issues. Ballard received $200,000 for their work and has been absolutely raking in lobbying revenue, pulling in $14 million in just the first quarter of 2025.

So we've got career officials getting fired for trying to do their jobs while corporate deals get waved through after companies hire the right connected lobbyists. It's corruption so obvious it's almost refreshing in its shamelessness.

Which brings us back to Gail Slater, who's become something of a political Rorschach test for the whole administration. She's essentially the last JD Vance person standing in any position of real authority since she was confirmed by the Senate with bipartisan support specifically because of her antitrust credentials (read: difficult to remove) and her connection to Vance's populist economic agenda. But after her top deputies got fired for trying to enforce antitrust law and she got overruled by Bondi's chief of staff on corporate settlements, she's been effectively neutered.

The message is crystal clear: companies can fire their expensive lawyers and hire lobbyists instead, because the fix is in at the highest levels. It's probably no coincidence that Vance himself has been conspicuously quiet about actual policy implementation. When your signature appointee gets kneecapped for trying to do the job you supposedly wanted her to do, what's the point of pretending you have any real influence?

Slater was supposed to represent the "populist" wing of Trump's economic team, the one that would actually take on Big Tech and corporate consolidation. Instead, she's become a cautionary tale about what happens when campaign promises meet lobbying dollars. Vance gets to keep his title, Slater keeps her office, and the lobbyists keep getting richer. Everyone wins, except for the part where nobody actually does their job.

Now, before anyone thinks I'm picking sides here, let's talk about the Democrats, because sweet Jesus, these people could screw up a one-car parade. The Facebook poster predicted we won't have another "leftist" president anytime soon, and honestly, they might be right. Not because Americans love conservative policies, but because Democrats are spectacularly incompetent at basic politics.

Think about it: they had four years to prepare for Trump's return, and their big strategy was... what exactly? Running an 81-year-old man who could barely complete sentences, then panic-switching to Kamala Harris at the last minute? It's like they looked at the Republican playbook of "appeal to your base and hope for the best" and thought, "You know what this needs? Less charisma and more confusion."

Democrats consistently poll better on individual policy issues. Americans support higher taxes on the wealthy, expanded healthcare coverage, climate action, and reproductive rights. But somehow Democrats managed to lose to a guy with 37% approval ratings who was literally indicted multiple times. That's not a political party; that's a support group for people who are allergic to winning.

The party's favorability rating has sunk to a net -32 percentage points, with only 24% positive and 56% negative among registered voters. That's a 30-year low. When you're less popular than Congress, it might be time to reconsider your life choices.

Unfortunately, none of this matters to true believers on either side. Republicans will look at Trump's 37% approval rating and say "fake polls," while Democrats will look at their historic unpopularity and blame Russian bots or something. Everyone's always winning in their own minds.

You've got Trump supporters celebrating the "One Big Beautiful Bill" while international tourism collapses and approval ratings crater. Meanwhile, Democrats are probably somewhere writing think pieces about how this is all part of some master plan to reveal Trump's true nature to the American people, as if the American people haven't had about nine years to figure out Trump's true nature.

The Facebook poster was confident that "most Americans don't want" another Democratic president. They might be right, but not for the reasons they think. It's not because Americans have suddenly fallen in love with MAGA ideology. I mean, the approval numbers make that pretty clear. It's because Democrats have somehow managed to make themselves even less appealing than a historically unpopular president. You’d think that would be impossible, but here we are.

What's truly depressing is how little any of these facts will penetrate the bubble. I can cite Tourism Economics projecting a 9.4% decline in international visitor arrivals, or mention that Trump's approval with independents has never been lower, or point out that career antitrust officials are getting fired for trying to enforce the law, and it won't change anyone's mind about anything.

Republicans will dismiss unfavorable tourism numbers as fake news or liberal media bias. Democrats will focus on Trump's low approval ratings while ignoring their own party's historic unpopularity. Everyone will continue believing their team is winning while the country stumbles from crisis to crisis like a drunk person trying to navigate an obstacle course.

The manufacturing data shows that Trump's tariffs are already hitting American businesses hard, with companies like Caterpillar and Eaton reporting significant impacts. Consumer confidence jumped in May, but inflation concerns persist, with 72% of Americans saying they're "very" or "extremely" worried about a recession. None of this will stop either side from declaring victory.

Meanwhile, the real action happens in the shadows, where Ballard Partners pulls in $20.6 million in lobbying revenue in a single quarter and career officials get fired for doing their jobs. The antitrust division that was supposed to take on Big Tech instead becomes a revolving door for corporate interests. But hey, at least everyone gets to feel good about their team.

The HPE-Juniper settlement is particularly instructive. Here was a case where the DOJ sued to block a $14 billion merger over legitimate competition concerns. But after HPE hired the right lobbyists with ties to the administration, suddenly there's a settlement that lets the deal go through pending a judge's review. Career officials who objected got fired for "insubordination."

This is how the system actually works, regardless of which party is in power. The rhetoric changes, the team colors are different, but the game stays the same. Corporate interests hire connected lobbyists, career officials who try to enforce the law get sidelined, and everyone argues about whose fault it is while the swamp gets deeper.

The beautiful irony is that Trump ran on draining the swamp, Democrats ran on being the adults in the room, and somehow we ended up with a swamp so deep you'd need scuba gear to find the bottom. Career officials get fired, lobbyists get rich, tourists stay home, approval ratings crater, and everyone insists they're winning.

Maybe the real lesson here isn't about which party is better or worse. Maybe it's about recognizing that when everyone thinks they're the smart ones, nobody actually is. When Facebook posts full of confidently stated nonsense get thousands of shares, when approval ratings hitting historic lows get spun as victories, when career officials enforcing the law get fired while corporate lobbyists cash checks, we might want to step back and ask whether any of this makes sense.

But we won't, because that would require admitting we might be wrong about something, and Americans would rather be confidently incorrect than humbly uncertain. It's easier to blame the other team than to acknowledge that maybe, just maybe, the whole game is rigged and we're all getting played.

At least the data is clear, even if nobody wants to hear it. International tourism is down, approval ratings are terrible, corporate interests are winning, and everyone's convinced their side is doing great. If that's not the most American thing ever, I don't know what is.

Pass the whiskey.